Introduction
The Islamic Republic of Iran stands at a historic crossroads. Internally, the Islamic Republic faces a series of profound challenges, ranging from social protests and economic hardship to the question of succession for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Externally, confrontation with the United States, Israel, and their allies is increasingly escalating—particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program and its role in the Middle East.
The relationship between the United States and Iran has been marked by tensions for decades. A central point of contention is the Iranian nuclear program, which has repeatedly been cited as a potential trigger for military conflict. In recent years, diplomatic efforts have been made time and again to find a solution to the conflict, but a long-term agreement remains uncertain. In light of current geopolitical realities following the outbreak of the Gaza War, the question arises: what are the chances for a lasting agreement without triggering a military confrontation in the Middle East?
1. Geopolitical Framework
Iran is in a difficult geopolitical position. The United States and its allies—especially Israel—view the Iranian nuclear program as a serious threat. Iran, on the other hand, feels surrounded by hostile forces and sees its nuclear capabilities as a security guarantee for its survival and as a tool of political leverage. The enrichment of uranium to 60 percent and beyond is evidence of this. At the same time, the Islamic Republic claims that its aims are purely peaceful—a contradiction that is obvious and not accepted by the international community. In its latest report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed concern about the transparency of Iran’s program. The three European states (E3) involved in the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) have warned—referring to the potential activation of the so-called snapback mechanism—that a continuation of Iran’s current course could seriously endanger the global non-proliferation regime (NPT).
The growing alignment between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran is described by Western analysts as the “Axis of Autocracies.” What unites these states is their opposition to the US-led world order. Nevertheless, this alliance is considered fragile and unstable. While economic and military ties between Russia and Iran have intensified, China continues to act with caution.
Beijing’s long-term strategy seems to be more about opportunistically exploiting the weaknesses of Moscow and Tehran than forming a stable partnership with them. If the war in Ukraine ends or the global dynamic shifts, these alliances could turn out to be merely temporary alliances of convenience. A key question remains how Iran can be integrated into a future geopolitical order.
2. Iran’s Domestic Challenges
Recent years have witnessed a period of instability within Iran, stemming from a confluence of factors, including internal pressures and external pressures from neighboring states. This phenomenon is multifaceted, arising from both ongoing protests against the regime and the economic crises that have undermined the Islamic Republic. The economic hardships, exacerbated by international sanctions, have compelled the regime to explore alternative strategies for maintaining its power base. The Iranian leadership has adopted a dual strategy, characterized by a simultaneous allowance of limited social freedoms and targeted repression aimed at maintaining control.
The observed loosening of dress code regulations and the tolerance of open discussions on the internet can be interpreted as tactical maneuvers aimed at preventing larger-scale protests. Concurrently, the regime has adopted a discourse emphasizing the necessity of national unity, a strategy employed to forestall any negotiations with Western entities.
3. Power Dynamics and the Question of Succession in Iran
Within Iran’s power structure, there is an ongoing conflict between hardliners and moderate forces. The hardliners—particularly entrenched within the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the ideological core of the system—advocate for an aggressive foreign policy and the continuation of the nuclear program. The moderates, represented especially in parts of the government and the diplomatic elite, may be more open to negotiations due to the economic hardship.
The question of who will succeed Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader remains unresolved. However, a potential change in leadership could mark a pivotal shift in the future direction of Iran’s foreign policy.
4. The Economic Situation of the Iranian Population
Iran’s economy is facing a deep crisis. The main contributing factors are sanctions, mismanagement, and corruption, which have led to a significant increase in inflation and unemployment. The cost of living has become unaffordable for many Iranians, and the impoverishment of large segments of the population has severely undermined trust in the government. This economic distress could push the regime to seek diplomatic solutions in order to ease sanctions.
5. Socio-Political Tensions Between the Regime and the Population
Another crucial factor contributing to Iran’s instability is the social tension between the younger population and the clerical regime. A significant portion of the country’s youth is increasingly demanding personal freedoms and a more open society, while the regime continues to rely on repression. It is foreseeable that this divide will deepen in the coming years and pose new challenges to the regime.
6. The Role of Women in the Iranian Resistance
One particularly relevant aspect of the socio-political tensions is the role of women in Iranian society. Women represent a significant majority of protesters and have become a symbol of resistance against the repressive structures of the Islamic Republic.
The systematic suppression of women’s rights and the imposition of rigid societal norms have led to a substantial increase in women’s participation in protest movements. Their growing organization could lead to profound societal changes in the long term, which in turn could have consequences for the structure of the future political system.
7. The Role of Regional Actors in the Nuclear Conflict
The Iranian nuclear conflict has direct repercussions for the entire region. Israel sees Iran’s nuclear program as a substantial threat to its own existence and has repeatedly threatened to use military force. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia perceives a strengthening of Iran and seeks close cooperation with the United States. At the same time, Russia and China are working to expand their influence in the Middle East by supporting Iran both economically and militarily.
This extremely complex constellation contributes to the development of a potential diplomatic solution, although such a solution is considered extremely difficult to achieve. The central question is whether Iran is willing to restrict its nuclear program or whether it is definitively moving toward becoming a nuclear power. Western intelligence agencies report that Tehran is only a few months to at most a year away from producing a nuclear weapon. Iran, however, insists that its program serves purely civilian purposes. If tensions continue to escalate, a military conflict between Israel and Iran would become unavoidable.
8. The Weakening of Iran Due to the Collapse of the “Axis of Resistance”
Iran played a key role in ensuring the survival of the Assad regime and invested heavily in building military infrastructure in Syria. Nevertheless, the regime in Tehran was unable to prevent the collapse of the Assad government at the end of 2024. Reasons for this included Assad’s demand for the withdrawal of Iranian troops as well as intensified Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities and supply routes in Syria and to Hezbollah in Lebanon. As a result, the Islamic Republic was no longer able to maintain its regional influence through military means. Following Assad’s downfall, the so-called “Axis of Resistance” began to disintegrate. This weakening and the sudden collapse of the Assad regime marked a major setback for Iranian foreign policy. Tehran lost a key regional ally and was forced to reassess its regional strategies, readjust its priorities, and focus more strongly on securing its own domestic stability. While Israel continues its military campaign against Iranian proxy groups, Iran still seeks to assert its influence in the region. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen remain important actors in Iran’s regional strategy, even though they have suffered significant setbacks in recent times.
9. The Role of the United States and Diplomatic Options
The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has led to a revival of the “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran. The implementation of strict sanctions and the maintenance of the military option are being used by the U.S. to pressure the leadership in Tehran into agreeing to a new nuclear deal. However,
Iran does not consider itself weakened and believes it is resilient enough to withstand the pressure—especially in light of potential economic support from Russia and China.
The United States faces a dual challenge: on the one hand, there is a need to bring Iran to the negotiating table; on the other hand, Washington’s own geopolitical priorities—particularly its focus on the Pacific—must not be jeopardized by another U.S. war in the Middle East. A possible strategy could involve providing Iran with economic relief and integrating it into the regional geopolitical balance without making too many concessions. It is advisable to keep diplomatic channels open, especially in light of a possible succession to Ayatollah Khamenei, which could bring a reorientation of Iran’s foreign policy.
10. The Danger of Military Conflict
The ongoing conflicts and clashes of interest in the Middle East are highly significant for regional stability. The war in Gaza, Iran’s support for the Houthis, and mutual threats exchanged with Israel have brought the region to the brink of a new conflagration. The United States now considers every Houthi action as a direct act by Tehran. President Donald Trump has firmly stated that Iran will be held responsible for any attacks carried out by its proxy groups. A military conflict—especially in light of the tense relationship between Iran and Israel—constitutes a very real threat. Escalation of tensions could have uncontrollable consequences for the entire region.
Russia and several Arab states are working behind the scenes to mediate between Iran and the West. Iran demands negotiations on equal footing, free from any form of threats or pressure. Iranian officials stress that talks can only take place if the other side abandons its pressure-based policy. At the same time, Iran denies responsibility for the actions of its allies and views any attempt to accuse it of destabilizing the region as a hostile act against itself. Therefore, the United States is urged to intensify its efforts to find multilateral solutions to prevent a serious conflict.
Conclusion
A sober analysis of the factors influencing the prospects for a lasting understanding between the United States and Iran reveals a complex and multi-layered dynamic. Key factors include the geopolitical balance of power on the international stage, domestic developments within Iran, the influence of external actors, and the strategic orientation of the United States.
The analysis suggests that Iran’s increasing weakness due to the collapse of its regional influence network could, in the long term, force the country into a foreign policy shift.
A diplomatic solution is fundamentally possible but requires strategic patience and a deep understanding of the complex dynamics of Iranian politics.
The coming months will be critical. The United States and its allies face the challenge of bringing Tehran to the negotiating table without reinforcing its regional ambitions. At the same time, Iran must choose between economic recovery and geopolitical confrontation. If no diplomatic solution is reached, a further escalation looms—with potentially catastrophic consequences for the entire region. Another conflict would not only destabilize the Middle East but also jeopardize global security interests.